European Expectations Center (EEC)

The European Expectations Center at ESMT Berlin is a new research hub dedicated to understanding how expectations shape economic decision-making.

Led by Prof. Michael Weber, recipient of the Alexander von Humboldt Professorship, Germany's most prestigious international research award, the center brings together world-leading researchers to study how households, firms, and policymakers form expectations about inflation, financial markets, and the wider economy—and how these expectations influence behavior. Through cutting-edge research, data, and collaboration, the EEC aims to generate insights that inform academic debate, business practice, and economic policy.

Economic expectations research materials displayed on a desk, including charts, data visualizations, and a laptop showing economic indicators and survey results.

Why expectations matter

Expectations influence many of the decisions made by households, businesses, investors, and policymakers. Beliefs about inflation, interest rates, employment, and economic growth affect how people spend, save, invest, borrow, and plan for the future.

Understanding how expectations are formed and how they change over time is essential for understanding economic behavior and designing effective policy. By studying expectations, researchers can better understand how individuals and organizations respond to economic shocks, market developments, and public communication.

The EEC aims to contribute to this understanding through rigorous research, innovative data collection, and international collaboration.

Supported by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation

The European Expectations Center was established through support from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation as part of the Alexander von Humboldt Professorship awarded to Prof. Michael Weber.

The Alexander von Humboldt Professorship is Germany's most prestigious international research award and supports outstanding researchers whose work strengthens Germany as a research destination and promotes international academic collaboration.

Research areas

The EEC focuses on the study of expectations and their role in economic decision-making across a range of contexts.

Household expectations

Researching how individuals form expectations about inflation, income, employment, and broader economic conditions.

Financial markets

Studying the role of expectations in investment decisions, asset pricing, and financial market behavior.

Monetary policy and communication

Examining how central bank actions and communication influence expectations and economic outcomes.

Firms and decision-making

Understanding how businesses form expectations and how these expectations shape investment, hiring, and pricing decisions.

Survey-based research

Developing innovative methods for measuring expectations and beliefs through large-scale surveys and experimental research.

Data for researchers

The EEC supports the research community through access to data and research resources related to expectations and economic behavior.

Researchers can explore:

Survey datasets
Questionnaires and survey instruments
Documentation and methodological materials
Working papers and research outputs
Information on data access and collaboration opportunities

Data resources are available through Professor Michael Weber's research website.

Access datasets

The effect of macroeconomic uncertainty on household spending

American Economic Review, Vol. 114, No. 3, March 2024, pp. 645–677.

Olivier Coibion, Dimitris Georgarakos, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Geoff Kenny, and Michael Weber.

Monetary policy communications and their effects on household inflation expectations

Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 130, No. 6, June 2022, pp. 1537–1584.

Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, and Michael Weber.

Gender roles produce divergent economic expectations

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 118, No. 21, May 2021, article e2008534118.

Francesco D’Acunto, Ulrike Malmendier, and Michael Weber.

Exposure to grocery prices and inflation expectations

Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 129, No. 5, 2021, pp. 1615–1639.

Francesco D’Acunto, Ulrike Malmendier, Juan Ospina, and Michael Weber.

Tell me something I don’t already know: Learning in low‐ and high‐inflation settings

Econometrica, Vol. 93, No. 1, January 2025, pp. 229–264.

Michael Weber, Bernardo Candia, Hassan Afrouzi, Tiziano Ropele, Rodrigo Lluberas, Serafin Frache, Brent Meyer, Saten Kumar, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Dimitris Georgarakos, Olivier Coibion, Geoff Kenny, and Jorge Ponce.

Partners and collaborators

The European Expectations Center collaborates with leading academic institutions, public organizations, and research partners to advance the study of expectations and economic behavior.

Through these collaborations, the center supports the exchange of ideas, the development of new research initiatives, and the dissemination of research findings to academic, policy, and practitioner audiences.